AI and Strategic Stability: A Framework for U.S.–China Technology Competition

HAI & SDS Seminar with Eyck Freymann

Strategic stability exists when neither side thinks it can improve its strategic outcome by striking first. Today, strategic stability is increasingly important and potentially fragile. Nuclear weapons are no longer the only technology that threatens a state with devastation. AI competition and emergent AI capabilities could challenge strategic stability in many ways, including offensive and defensive cyber operations, sensing, ballistic missile defense, and intelligence / counterintelligence operations. This talk will provide a detailed account of how AI, nuclear deterrence, and semiconductor interdependence jointly shape strategic stability in U.S.–China competition. From there, the seminar will make the case that AI introduces both new deterrence tools and new threats to strategic stability, especially through its effects on cyber operations, intelligence, and command-and-control.